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2010 May/June
WHAT'S NEWS
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
With all this valuable information, why are the world’s financial markets still wrought with news-inspired panic selling? Why doesn’t “the smart money” quietly sell their risky investments before the panic hits?
WHAT DOES BUY & HOLD TRULY MEAN
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon, PM, FCSI, President & Founder
Investors, and moreover, their advisors must be prepared to shrug off passive and easy fee collection by working harder and smarter, seeking returns through focussing on what is working, jettisoning what is not, and being able to know when to just be patient on the sidelines. The premise of “buy and hold” still underpins proper portfolio management – we just need to know when we are using “hope” instead of proper selling, buying and allocation of assets within our portfolio. It’s okay to be wrong, it’s not okay or, more importantly, financially prudent to stay wrong.
THE GOLDMAN SACHS EFFECT
By Guest Columnists, Don Vialoux, CMT, Timing the Markets & Jon Vialoux, Equity Clock
Goldman Sachs has been at the forefront of news lately due to allegations surrounding creation of subprime mortgage products and investment positions placed against these products. Those who benefited are alleged to have made billions of dollars. Events and negative news on Goldman were one of the reasons why equity markets began reeling a few weeks ago. Investors are losing faith in the company and the markets that it makes.
DRIVE-BY MORTGAGING
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
If you own investment real estate, should you sell to the current surge of buying? Should you cash in your chips? If the market does drop as it did in the early 1990s, real estate investors with lots of cash will be poised to buy at the bottom. To sell or not to sell? Tough decision?
THE CHART PAGES
A unique visual look at some market components - the canaries in the coal mine - along with some commentary. These are the horizons where our gaze it fixed.
A COMMON-SENSE APPROACH TO RISK AND REWARD – Part 4: WHEN IT'S GONE IT'S GONE FOREVER
By Thomas Kleinschmidt, COO and Client Service
Did you end hold on to your equities portfolio during the stock market correction of 2008 and watching the values fall, and then fall even further and further? Are you determined to avoid the next bear market?
2010-05-25
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2010 March/April
Featured Articles Include:
THE SECOND WAVE
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
We all know about the wave of pressure on US home prices. But what about the second wave on its way and how it will impact investors portfolios? Ken talks about the housing industry and what you should be aware of.
INVENTORY & CREDIT RECESSION APPEAR THE SAME AT FIRST, BUT THEY ARE NOT
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon, PM, FCSI, President & Founder
All recessions are not the same. Most investors have been accustomed to tidy and predictable inventory-based recessions. This recession which is really an extension of the one 2001-2002 is a credit-based recession. The recovery process and how it impacts investment decisions is very different.
THE CHART PAGES
A unique visual look at some market components - the canaries in the coal mine - along commentary suggesting what we are looking at to gauge market direction.
A COMMON-SENSE APPROACH TO RISK AND REWARD – Part 3: To Sell or Not To Sell
By Thomas Kleinschmidt, COO and Client Service
Does selling to protect capital conflict with minimizing capital gains tax liabilities? Here is a graphical way to look at the problem to be able to see where the tax issue sits on the chart as a ‘decision line’ so we can make better decisions.
AN OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AMERICAN EQUITY MARKETS FOR 2010
By Guest Columnist, Don Vialoux, CMT, Timing the Markets
The Canadian Dollar has a history of moving higher from mid March to the end of May. Will history repeat this year?
2010-03-25
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2010 January/February
Featured Articles Include:
SHORT SIGHTED
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
Retrospection often occurs each year on the year that was. But what about taking a longer look back at things, like ten years?
A FEW VIGNETTES
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon, PM, FCSI, President & Founder
A brief look at a few key things at play today and how their realities may be different from the hype: China, the US Dollar and Government Bonds
THE CHART PAGES
A unique visual look at some market components - the canaries in the coal mine - along commentary suggesting what we are looking at to gauge market direction.
WHAT NOT TO LEARN FROM A COYOTE
By Sheldon Liberman, PM, CCO
Investors would do well to learn to stand down from an idea. As it is with the rascally Wild E. Coyote persistence does not always pay off.
AN OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AMERICAN EQUITY MARKETS FOR 2010
By Guest Columnist, Don Vialoux, CMT, Timing the Markets
Our colleague and good friend Don talks about profiting in 2010.
2010-02-11
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2009 November/December
Featured Articles Include:
THE ROLE OF FEAR IN ROR
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
Extreme or complete lack of fear can negatively effect our investment decisions, but learning to invest with just the right amount of fear can actually do wonders for your portfolio’s return.
A LITTLE BIT OF THIS, A LITTLE BIT OF THAT
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon, PM, FCSI, President & Founder
A hodge podge of things that Hap finds interesting or educational in today's investing climate
THE CHART PAGES
A unique visual look at some market components - the canaries in the coal mine - along commentary suggesting what we are looking at to gauge market direction.
NO RESPECT AT ALL
By Sheldon Liberman, PM, CCO
Everyone goes through ups and downs in their lives, and with the respect you receive only being as good as your latest achievement or performance, it’s perseverance that rewards you in the end.
2009-11-25
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2009 September/October
Featured Articles Include:
WASTING AWAY
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
Learning from our investment mistakes is challenging, especially if we think later, once the pain is gone, that we don’t have to learn anything.
MARKET RALLIES AND TIMEFRAME
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon, PM, FCSI, President & Founder
The 2000-2003 bear market is very similar to the current state of markets and economics, yet it has some deeper issues that weren’t around back then.
THE CHART PAGES
A visual observation of some canaries in the coal mines, a few things we watch that maybe portend of the state of affairs down in the deep.
LIQUIDITY
By Sheldon Liberman, PM, CCO
There’s been lots of talk liquidity and cash on the sidelines, both oft talked about current and future drivers of markets, but what do they really mean now and in the future.
SEASONAL INFLUENCES ON THE MARKETS IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER
GUEST COLUMN By Don Vialoux, CMT, Timing the Market
Don’s looks at the month of September from a seasonal and historical perspective
2009-09-24
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2009 July/August
Featured Articles Include:
PENSION PLAN BLUES
By Ken Norquay, CMT & Partner
The 2009 demise of America’s auto industry shone the spotlight of public scrutiny on some pension plans’ inability to meet their obligations to pensioners. But it goes beyond the auto industry.
DEFLATION OR INFLATION? IT REALLY MATTERS
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon, PM, FCSI, President & Founder
We developed a hypothesis several years ago that we would head into a strong period of deflation at some point in the future. Our methodology calls for us to move a hypothesis to a thesis and finally to action, as data and trend, either supportive or destructive, comes to the fore. Even before this notion formed, we were anticipating a large stock market correction. This could be a single deflationary event or it could beget more deflation like the tip of an iceberg.
A COMMON-SENSE APPROACH TO RISK AND REWARD – PART TWO
By Thomas Kleinschmidt, Client Service
Effectively, only bond investors who hold to maturity in the same currency are rewarded for risk. Said differently, without a selling strategy outside of bonds, you’re a gambler not an investor
DI-WORSE-IFICATION
By Sheldon Liberman, PM, CCO
When the stock market suffers a serious decline, as it did in 2008, financial theory comes under close scrutiny. Investors, and in particular the media, start to wonder how portfolio managers could have ever embraced certain ideas in the first place.
THE CHART PAGE
A visual observation of economic trends.
2009-08-03
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2009 May/June
Featured Articles Include:
WHAT DOES BUY AND HOLD TRULY MEAN?
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
The March-April newsletter was closed out with a brief synopsis of a complex topic: Modern Portfolio Theory and specifically how it actually has faired over a long study based on the data…
SEARCHING FOR A SUMMER SEASONAL TRADE GUEST COLUMN
By Don Vialoux, CMT
A favourable outlook for grain prices in the second half of 2009 is setting the stage for an interesting seasonal trade this summer.
FYI…
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
I have a friend who asked me about the advisability of buying the stock in a particular company. My friend had a friend in the company who informed him that the company was going to exceed its profit forecast for the quarter, and that we should own the stock before…
A COMMON-SENSE APPROACH TO RISK AND REWARD – PART ONE
By Thomas Kleinschmidt, Client Service
Your portfolio’s rate of return is improved by NOT participating in the major downtrends. Additionally, calculable risks rise and fall according to a selling strategy – thus the timing of selling is more important than the timing of buying.
WANT TO BECOME A BETTER INVESTOR? GET BRAIN DAMAGE GUEST COLUMN
By Barry Ritholtz,
Regular contributor and guest on CNBC, a significant US market voice.
That’s the finding of a rather unusual study by researchers from Carnegie Mellon University, the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the University of Iowa.
2009-06-05
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2009 March/April
Featured Articles Include:
FINANCIAL MORALITY
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
“Love of money is the root of all evil.”
When we think of good and evil in investing, we usually think of whether we make money or lose money. Making money is good: losing is bad. In the investing world, good and evil are defined in dollars and cents.
VOLUME AND MARKET TREND CHANGES
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
“It would be a mistake to assume that most changes in trend are very abrupt afairs. The fact is that important changes in trend usually require a period of transition. The problem is that these periods of transition do not always signal a trend reversal.
CHANGE
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
Action and reaction, ebb and fow, trial and error, change – this is the
rhythm of living. Out of our over-confdence, fear; out of our fear, clearer
vision, fresh hope. And out of hope, progress. (Bruce Barton)
2009-04-26
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2009 January/February
Featured Articles Include:
TWO BIG THREE’S
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
Amidst all the auto bail out bumph of late 2008, we heard the phrase “Gradual Bankruptcy.” Some US politician was commenting on the inevitable failure of one or more of the Big Three US auto manufacturers…
6 OR 7 OUT OF 10 IS GOOD
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
Good portfolio management, like many things in life, is about managing your mistakes, about managing your investment misses. Another way of looking at it is through the process of risk management…
INVESTING IN EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFS)
By Don Vialoux, CMT
Exchange Traded Funds are simple and valuable investments with strange sounding names! ETFs essentially are mutual funds that trade like a stock.
LESSONS FROM COACH HOLTZ
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
I’ve always found sports analogies to be particularly applicable to the business of investment management. For instance, in a recent blog article sheldonliberman.blogspot.com, I discussed how much investing was like playing tennis, in the sense that they are both losers’ games…
2009-01-02
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2008 November/December
Featured Articles Include:
Stop the Bubble Machine
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
Okay, you’re an investor. The family next door bought their house for $400,000 a few years ago with no down payment and a 40-year amortization…
What Now? How Do You “Recover”? What’s the Strategy?
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
Though we seem to have some stability in the markets at the time of writing with theVIX, a measure of volatility (see Sep/Oct 08 and VIX update for more on volatility), coming off historic highs, the last few months have been a tough stretch…
Holiday Wishes, Ode to the New Year
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
The year 2008 is about to give way to a new, and hopefully profitable, investment year. Although our clients have come through the current crisis well, we at CastleMoore nevertheless look forward to a fresh start…
2008-11-12
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2008 September/October
Featured Articles Include:
Economic Tsunami:The Crest of the Wave
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
The ripple began 2 or 3 years ago. Then the US subprime mortgage wave hit the headlines 14 months ago…
TIME AND VOLATILITY: HOW HAS IT CHANGED THINGS?
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
Making investment decisions in the last year seemed like a mugs game. Investors, whether professional or individuals, may have done their homework, hopefully dotting all the “i’s” and crossing all the “t’s”, yet still feel like they’ve been played for a fool…
U.S. Equity Markets and the U.S. Presidential Election Cycle
By Don Vialoux, CMT
U.S. equity markets historically have moved higher during U.S. presidential election years. Data for U.S. election years starting in 1888 shows that the S&P 500 Index advanced in 23 of the past 30 periods…
Hurting Days Hath September
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
I’ve always loved the month of September. The weather was usually agreeable, the pennant races were in the home stretch, hockey was becoming more the buzz (go Habs!) and the NFL season was kicking off…
2008-09-10
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2008 July/August
Featured Articles Include:
Boiling Oil
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
Rookie stock bro-ker: “How far up will it go?” Grizzled veteran broker: “Farther than you think!”
The Seeds of a Company, CastleMoore
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
CastleMoore was created out of a hypothesis and sustained through facts that there was a need for a new approach to managing money…
My Choice of Careers (Part II)
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
In my last column (and there are a few choice words waiting for those who suggested it should be my last column) I put forth some perspective on being CastleMoore’s Portfolio Manager…
2008-07-08
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2008 May/June
Featured Articles Include:
Market Psychology: Challenges of CastleMoore’s Contrarian Style
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
The stock market is not solely about good news or bad news. It’s really about the context of the news…
The Big Picture: Some Great Summer Reading
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
I don’t read the business section that often. By and large, to me, most of the news reported isn’t useful in making investment decisions or charting a course…
My Choice of Careers
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
They say that a man is known by the company he keeps. A portfolio manager is known for the companies he keeps…
2008-05-06
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2008 March/April
Featured Articles Include:
Investor Amnesia?
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
The majority of investors have such short memories. Do you have investors’ amnesia?
What’s The Deal With Bonds?
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
CastleMoore’s benchmark, a relative measurement of our performance, consists of 35% Cdn bonds, 35% Cdn, 15% US and 15% International equities…
The Winter of Our Discontent
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
The severity of this winter in Ontario has, on occasion, invited comparison to the winters I experienced growing up in Montreal…
2008-03-04
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2008 January/February
Featured Articles Include:
Sub-Prime: The Understatement of the Year 2007
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
What’s all the fuss about? Summer 2007: Why did the central banks of the most sophisticated economies in the world have to bail out the Big Banks?
The Canaries in the Coal Mine
By Robert “Hap” Sneddon FCSI, President
The last year has been a wild ride for investors to say the least…
I Liked the Company So Much….
By Thomas Kleinschmidt, Client Service
I joined the company! For my inaugural submission to the CM Newsletter I wish to say hello to all readers…
2008-01-02
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2007 May/June
Featured Articles Include:
Going Looney for the Loonie
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
Every once in a while, we get to see a classic: all the forces come together in a “text book” example and we get to test our theories…
Prices Don’t Lie…
By Robert Sneddon FCSI, President
“Prices don’t lie!” she stated confidently while scanning the large room, seemingly to see who might raise a challenge or to maybe just to see who really looked confused...
Notes From the Trader’s Forum
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
It had been quite awhile since I had attended an industry gathering of equity traders…
2007-05-06
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2007 March/April
Featured Articles Include:
The Second Shoe
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
In the Sept 06’ issue of CastleMoore Investment News, I wrote about the woes of General Motors, the once powerful auto manufacturer whose only remaining talent is making obsolete V-8 engines…
Prices Don’t Lie…
By Robert Sneddon FCSI, President
“Prices don’t lie!” she stated confidently while scanning the large room, seemingly to see who might raise a challenge or to maybe just to see who really looked confused.
Overweight’s the Norm
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
Coach: What's shaking, Norm? Norm: All four cheeks and a couple of chins, Coach…
2007-03-04
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2007 January/February
Featured Articles Include:
Heartaches
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
Valentine’s Day is upon us: the season for human beings to celebrate our emotional nature…
The True Story About Loss
By Robert Sneddon FCSI, President
You may have seen the typical illustration used to highlight the impact of loss upon your investment portfolio…
When You’re Rich, You’re Eccentric
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
What do the names Daddy Warbucks, C. Montgomery Burns, Scrooge McDuck, Ritchie Rich, Jed Clampett and Mr. Monopoly all have in common, besides being rumoured to have voted Democrat last November?
2007-01-02
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2006 November/December
Featured Articles Include:
Fed Up, Fed Down
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
The US Federal Reserve Board [“The Fed”] is the single most influential economic force in the world…
Financial Planning, Investment Decisions: Keep Them Separate
By Robert Sneddon FCSI, President
Financial planning is certainly a growth business with baby boomers wondering how much dough they’ll need for retirement…
Income Trusts: Where to Start?
By Robert Sneddon FCSI, President
We rarely talk about individual securities in our newsletters or to our clients.
Napoleon Blown-apart
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
Imagine being an investor in London, England, on fifteenth of June, 1815…
2006-11-12
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2006 September/October
Featured Articles Include:
THE CLONE BUILDERS
By Bill Carrigan
According to the company, the Sentry Select Diversified Income Trust is a closed-end trust that invests primarily in a broad range of royalty and income trusts, real estate investment trusts and other high-yielding securities…
GM Genius
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
In late August 2006, GM announced its re-entry into the muscle car business…
Zzzz … (Part II)
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
You may recall having read, or are at least somewhat familiar with, the story of Rip Van Winkle…
2006-09-10
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2006 June/July
Featured Articles Include:
THE DAY THE REPORTER CALLED ME
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner.
Newspaper reporters are an interesting lot. Their job often is to make something that is
really boring sound like something that is really interesting.…
The Monkey in US All
By Robert Sneddon, President of CastleMoore Inc.
I recently came across a study of Capuchin monkeys that reinforces why investors and money managers must act from a discipline which separates their instinctive tendencies
from their portfolio management decisions. …
Zzzz …
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
There’s a time and a place for adventure. Your investment program should be neither. …
2006-06-07
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2006 April/May
Featured Articles Include:
GOLD STOCKS VS GOLD BULLION
By Robert Sneddon, President of CastleMoore Inc.
Some time ago we began purchasing units of bullion for our more conservative and moderate clients…
WHAT IS AN INVESTMENT COUNSELLOR?
By Ken Norquay, CMT and Partner
Most Canadians have their assets managed by one of four types of advisors…
INCOME TACKS
By Sheldon Liberman Portfolio Manager
It’s tax season again, and if you’re like most taxpayers, one of the following is true…
2006-04-05
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2006 February/March
Featured Articles Include:
BABY BOOMERS :WHEN ARE YOU SELLING ?
By Robert Sneddon, President of CastleMoore Inc.
I am not a baby boomer myself, but I’ve come to intimately understand their financial concerns and objectives. I had to.
MAINTAINING YOUR BALANCE
By Sheldon Liberman, Portfolio Manager
Ol’ Yogi likely wasn’t thinking of his investment portfolio when he favored us with that particular Yogiism, but in the mind of a portfolio manager, he might as well have been…
FOREIGN CONTENT RULES NOW SCRAPPED: NOW WHERE ARE THE GREENER PASTURES?
By Robert Sneddon, President of CastleMoore Inc.
Foreign content rules have recently changed. Beginning in 2006 Canadian RRSP investors are no longer bound by any federal rules that limit the amount of money that they can invest in security markets outside of Canada...
2006-02-03
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2005 November/December
Featured Articles Include:
Bah, Hummer Bug?
By Ken Norquay, CMT.
It’s the story of the stock market, isn’t it? There are winners and there are losers…
Curb Your Enthusiasm
By Robert Sneddon, President of CastleMoore Inc.
Want to become a better investor? Get brain damage…
Its’ the Earnings, Schmendrik!
By Sheldon Liberman, Portfolio Manager
The Stock had a P/E of 500, but the analyst recommending it said that it was too low, that it should have a P/E of 1000…
2005-11-12
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