Over the next three months, we should see a rationalization of the front-running U.S. Federal Reserve with other central banks and the capital markets. At present, the Fed wants to lean into the wind and raise rates, proclaiming particular positive data such as employment and nascent inflation. However, both data sets are considered lagging indicators and not ones predictive of green shoots. Global data is soft or softening. Expectations are that the ECB and China will continue to stimulate, while many Fed bankers have been talking up a continuance of a rate hike. Yellen’s recent comments suggest, however, that she, and she alone, is in charge and more dovish than those on the talking circuit. The volatility from central bank messages is in part, I believe, to keep investors confused.
Or is it that the unchartered territory the Fed find itself in is simply catching up with it?